The Battle of the Viktors

24 presidential nominees will be battling it out on October 31, 2004 in Ukraine’s presidential elections. However, the true battle is between two contenders:

Contender #1
Viktor Yushchenko - the West
Opposition leader Nasha Ukraina (Our Ukraine)
Past Prime Minister and President of the National Bank of Ukraine
Must be backed by foreign capital
Supported by Ukrainian Diaspora
Platform: to preserve Ukrainian national identity and integration with the European Union
Charisma: appears humble and humane

Contender #2
Viktor Yanukovych - Mother Russia
“Party” in power
Current Vice President
Backed by oligarch money
Supported by Putin and ethnic Russians in Ukraine
Platform: reinstate Russian as second official language and continue to favor Russia and other former Soviet republics in international relations
Charisma: good old Soviet leader

Although I’ve witnessed the political turbulence in Eastern Europe in the beginning of the 1990s, I have never seen such blatantly dirty election campaign. Here are the highlights:
- Attempted poisoning of the opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko (BBS's Candidate Poisoned in Ukraine) in the beginning of September 2004 (compare pictures Ukraine probes 'poisoning plot', BBC) allegedly during lunch with Ukraine's secret service.
- Several raids on opposition organizations. In one of the raids, a building was searched twice. The first time the dog was really tired and wasn’t able to find the hidden explosives but in the second search, when everybody was evacuated, the authorities were better prepared.
- On October 23, the opposition organized a rally in front of the Central Election Committee. In its honor, private buses (marchirutkas) were not allowed to enter or leave Kyiv. Our trip to the UNESCO’s site in Chernigiv was canceled because “Yanukovych wanted people to stay in their homes and reflect on how they will vote in the upcoming election.” (quote from marchirutka stop discussions). For a police state like Ukraine, it was surprising that there were no visible policemen in the over 30,000 people crowd at the opposition rally. (Different figures have been reported - from 10,000 to 150,000. It was definitely more than 30,000 and locals say that this has been the largest crowd that Kyiv has seen for some time.) Plain clothes policemen showed up later in the evening and injured about 15 Yushchenko supporters.
- On the 28, 3 days before the election, in Kyiv will have an official celebration of the anniversary of Ukraine’s liberation of the Nazies. Putin will be present, plus it will be a good excuse to have 6,000 troops in the capital. Rehearsals for the parade started last night. Grandiose, impressive, terrifying.
- More than 10% additional voting ballots will be printed despite that the constitution allows 4%. The opposition is concerned that the extra ballots will be used to rig the election, especially in the polling stations for Ukrainians in Russia.
- Opposition sympathetic Channel 5 is threatened to be closed. Bank accounts of the Channel are frozen. The International Federation of Jurnalists condemned the actions (IFJ Condemns “Shadows of old-Style Censorship” After Attacks on Ukrainian Independent National Broadcaster).

It is difficult to point a source for all stories as the news reported by both the opposition and government representatives are completely different. If you wish, consider them rumors but bear in mind that in every rumor there is some truth. You could also check out the local English language weekly paper, the Kyiv Post (subsription required).

Why are Yanukovych & cie so concerned about losing? There still plenty to be stolen in Ukraine and plenty already stolen to be protected. Yushchenko appears to be prepared to make tough changes and to loosen the oligarch’s grip on Ukraine.

So what will happen? Here are a few possible outcomes:
- The elections are rigged, Yanukovych wins. Mass demonstrations, most likely led by university students will bring the government down.
- The elections are fair, Yushchenko wins. A successful assassination within a year will slow down Ukraine’s democratization process.
- There won’t be an election. Yushchenko is killed and Kuchma & cie assume power. Demonstrations.

The bottom line is that Ukrainians are peaceful and patient people. Although, the average person is not rich, things have been looking up. However, most Ukrainians know what they want for their country and are ready for change. I have a good feeling about the outcome of this election. Whatever happens, it will be good for Ukraine because the changes have started and nobody can stop them now. Wish Ukraine luck.