Russia Ratifies Kyoto Protocol

This could only happen in Russia: first say No and then say Yes to derive further benefits. Originally, opposed to Kyoto in 2002, Russia’s Dumma today ratified the protocol. In exchange, Russia will receive support from the European Union for its bid to join the World Trade Organization. (CBC's Russia's parliament ratifies Kyoto)
Now that Russia has ratified Kyoto, the protocol has the support of counties emitting 55% of global green-house gasses. Thus, the protocol is expected to become legally binding in the near future.
Read more about international positions on the Kyoto at BBC’s Weather Channel

The Battle of the Viktors

24 presidential nominees will be battling it out on October 31, 2004 in Ukraine’s presidential elections. However, the true battle is between two contenders:

Contender #1
Viktor Yushchenko - the West
Opposition leader Nasha Ukraina (Our Ukraine)
Past Prime Minister and President of the National Bank of Ukraine
Must be backed by foreign capital
Supported by Ukrainian Diaspora
Platform: to preserve Ukrainian national identity and integration with the European Union
Charisma: appears humble and humane

Contender #2
Viktor Yanukovych - Mother Russia
“Party” in power
Current Vice President
Backed by oligarch money
Supported by Putin and ethnic Russians in Ukraine
Platform: reinstate Russian as second official language and continue to favor Russia and other former Soviet republics in international relations
Charisma: good old Soviet leader

Although I’ve witnessed the political turbulence in Eastern Europe in the beginning of the 1990s, I have never seen such blatantly dirty election campaign. Here are the highlights:
- Attempted poisoning of the opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko (BBS's Candidate Poisoned in Ukraine) in the beginning of September 2004 (compare pictures Ukraine probes 'poisoning plot', BBC) allegedly during lunch with Ukraine's secret service.
- Several raids on opposition organizations. In one of the raids, a building was searched twice. The first time the dog was really tired and wasn’t able to find the hidden explosives but in the second search, when everybody was evacuated, the authorities were better prepared.
- On October 23, the opposition organized a rally in front of the Central Election Committee. In its honor, private buses (marchirutkas) were not allowed to enter or leave Kyiv. Our trip to the UNESCO’s site in Chernigiv was canceled because “Yanukovych wanted people to stay in their homes and reflect on how they will vote in the upcoming election.” (quote from marchirutka stop discussions). For a police state like Ukraine, it was surprising that there were no visible policemen in the over 30,000 people crowd at the opposition rally. (Different figures have been reported - from 10,000 to 150,000. It was definitely more than 30,000 and locals say that this has been the largest crowd that Kyiv has seen for some time.) Plain clothes policemen showed up later in the evening and injured about 15 Yushchenko supporters.
- On the 28, 3 days before the election, in Kyiv will have an official celebration of the anniversary of Ukraine’s liberation of the Nazies. Putin will be present, plus it will be a good excuse to have 6,000 troops in the capital. Rehearsals for the parade started last night. Grandiose, impressive, terrifying.
- More than 10% additional voting ballots will be printed despite that the constitution allows 4%. The opposition is concerned that the extra ballots will be used to rig the election, especially in the polling stations for Ukrainians in Russia.
- Opposition sympathetic Channel 5 is threatened to be closed. Bank accounts of the Channel are frozen. The International Federation of Jurnalists condemned the actions (IFJ Condemns “Shadows of old-Style Censorship” After Attacks on Ukrainian Independent National Broadcaster).

It is difficult to point a source for all stories as the news reported by both the opposition and government representatives are completely different. If you wish, consider them rumors but bear in mind that in every rumor there is some truth. You could also check out the local English language weekly paper, the Kyiv Post (subsription required).

Why are Yanukovych & cie so concerned about losing? There still plenty to be stolen in Ukraine and plenty already stolen to be protected. Yushchenko appears to be prepared to make tough changes and to loosen the oligarch’s grip on Ukraine.

So what will happen? Here are a few possible outcomes:
- The elections are rigged, Yanukovych wins. Mass demonstrations, most likely led by university students will bring the government down.
- The elections are fair, Yushchenko wins. A successful assassination within a year will slow down Ukraine’s democratization process.
- There won’t be an election. Yushchenko is killed and Kuchma & cie assume power. Demonstrations.

The bottom line is that Ukrainians are peaceful and patient people. Although, the average person is not rich, things have been looking up. However, most Ukrainians know what they want for their country and are ready for change. I have a good feeling about the outcome of this election. Whatever happens, it will be good for Ukraine because the changes have started and nobody can stop them now. Wish Ukraine luck.

UN Day
Today is the United Nations day. How celebrated is this day in your community?

Corruption in Eastern Europe and CIS

Although corruption affects the democratic process and stifles economic development - preprequisites for EU accession, corruption level per se seem to be an unimportant factor for accession to the European Union. The Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2004 ranks new EU members like Poland 67 (64 in 2003), while EU hopeful Bulgaria takes 54 place. Ukraine - one of the strongest economies of the former Soviet Union republics - ranks 122, below war torn places like Serbia and Montenegro. That's why many are not surprised to hear recent reports that the opposition presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned (BBC's Candidate 'poisoned' in Ukraine).

Top 3 in the World
1. Finland
2. New Zealand
3. Denmark/ Iceland

Bottom 3 in the World
145. Bangladesh/ Haiti
144. Nigeria
142. Myanmar/ Chad

New EU Members
25. Malta
31. Estonia/ Slovenia
36. Cyprus
42. Hungary
44. Lithuania
51. Czech Republic
57. Latvia and Slovakia
67. Poland (share spot with Croatia)

Countries On-course for EU Accession
54. Bulgaria
77. Turkey
87. Romania

Other EE and CIS
67. Croatia (share spot with Poland)
74. Belarus
82. Armenia/ Bosnia and Herzegovina
90. Russia
97. Macedonia/ Serbia and Montenegro
108. Albania
114. Moldova/ Uzbekistan
122. Kazakhstan/ Kyrgyzstan/ Ukraine
133. Georgia/Tajikistan/Turkmenistan
140. Azerbaijan

“The People Have Spoken”:
Europe’s Last Dictator Will Be Allowed to Run for Third Term
On October 16, 2004, few Belarusians cast their votes for new members of Parliament and for constitution amendment allowing the current president to run again for the post. Despite the numerous issues of election and referendum legitimacy (ODIHR Election Observation Mission to Belarus), new Parliament was elected with no representatives of the opposition and president Lukashenko will be allowed to run for a third time next summer.
For the past 10 year in power, Lukashenko has done everything possible to share it with only a few. His overtly authoritarian style has led to the country's isolation: "An authoritarian style of rule is characteristic of me, and I have always admitted it," he said in August 2003(BBC Profile: Alexander Lukashenko). Belarus was suspended from the Council of Europe in 1997 and the US imposed sanctions today. The Belarus Democracy Act which provides for the promotion of democracy by supplying aid to non-governmental organizations, helping to establish an independent media and a ban on US federal agencies from giving any financial aid to the country. (Belarus vote condemned, BBC)
Russia and Putin seem to like this style – Putin himself has concentrated government power in his hands (BBC - Russia supports Belarus elections). The two countries have long been in discussions regarding common currency and tax system. However, political union seems to be a watershed.
In the mean time, 27% of Belorus’ population lives below the poverty line. (World Bank country brief)

African Development

Well, we think that Africa can't get their act together. But some countries have. According to Jeffrey Sachs (!!!) international donors should jointly assist development efforts of countries such as Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Senegal, Tanzania and Uganda, who have sound development and poverty alleviation plans. In Doing the Sums on Africa (Economist.com) Sachs says that a growing number of African countries has the quality of leadership and governance to achieve economic development but they lack the means. These countries lack the roads, electricity, health care and teachers needed to break out of poverty. All that is needed is $9 bill per year – far less what was targeted for Iraq.
P.S. I know this is Africa not Eastern Europe, but this is Jeffrey Sachs!

Poverty Alleviation Through SME Development in Ukraine – continued
Another major donor that contributes to economic development of Ukraine is the European Union through its TACIS technical assistance. Several successful projects part of the Improving of SME Environment runs primarily in Western Ukraine: establishing and operation of a Business Incubator, funding Mechanisms for Business Support Services, Small Business Loan Fund, regional foundations for support of entrepreneurship, Rural Livelihoods Project, and Credit Union Program for women entrepreneurs.

Poverty Alleviation Through SME development in Ukraine – Major Donors

United States Agency for International Development (USAID) runs BizPro program across Ukraine. The main goals of the program are to provide Market Development Support and SME Enabling Environment by helping the public and private sector in selected municipalities formulate and implement balanced and predictable regulations that improve the business climate; assisting the development and implementation of the one-stop-shop concept; working to improve the ability of Ukrainian SMEs to grow and compete in local, regional, and international markets and to develop linkages and improve industry-specific skills; working with business service providers; and with donor-funded programs that work in SME development. USAID has also created Micro Lending Program, which provides support to business start-ups and Business Internet Centres to train budding entrepreneurs (used mostly by women).

Department for International Development (DFID) – UK provides technical assistance for entrepreneurship training, SME loans and business education primarily in the Donbass (former heavy industry capital of Ukraine), Lviv, Odessa and Kharkiv regions (oblasts).

International Financial Corporation (IFC) has focused its SME development program on second tier assistance, i.e. assistance of already established private or state-owned businesses as due to lack of market economy business acumen most of them are poorly run. With technical assistance of the IFC, the Ukrainian Consulting Network was established. The UCN is comprised of 11 self-sustaining consulting centres that provide market economy business advice and training services originally at subsidized rates but since 2001 at market prices. With funding of IFC and the World Bank, www.vlasnasprava.info was launched. The site links SMEs to banks, leasing companies, and investment firms and offer on-line application for credit.

UNDP Poverty Research
The United Nations Development Programme has produced several interesting papers on poverty and its implications on sustainable human development, environment, trade, gender dynamics, etc. For the economists out there, the site offers several publications discussing techniques on measuring poverty, as well as poverty monitoring reports. Summary of UN poverty eradication conferences can also be found.

Microfinance
Another information rich site on microfinance is the United Nations Capital Development Fund (UNCDF) website, which contains information on how to promote microenterprise development in developing countries.

Poverty Eradication in Economies in Transition - Focus on Poland
In Programme Outline for Actively Counteracting Poverty and Social Marginalization, Mieczysław Kabaj analyses the reasons for poverty in Poland and proposes a macroeconomic plan to address its eradication. This strong analytical document concludes that the main reason for impoverishment in Poland is unemployment and proposes an action plan that will lead to the creation of 2.5 million new jobs by 2010. The plan calls for investment inducing policies, use of unemployment funds to improve labour force skills and encourage entrepreneurship, policies that promote part-time and seasonal employment, reform of benefits system, etc.

Microenterprise
For case studies and tools on assessing the impact of microenterprise programs visit this USAID website.

On the Go
Ok. I’ve caught the traveling bug! However, I’ve decided to slow down the pace and now I’ll have more time to keep this blog updated although not on a regular basis. So, keep checking!
Since I’m traveling in Eastern Europe, I’ll focus my stories on poverty alleviation programmes in this part of the world. I’ll cut down on current events reviews as it is more difficult to find impartial news coverage here especially while on the go.